La déflation s'oppose à l'inflation en tant que phénomène durable de réduction des prix, lié à une politique de diminution de la monnaie en circulation. Généralement, la déflation suit une crise de surproduction (comme en 1929) qui oblige les entreprises à baisser leurs prix pour tenter de vendre leurs produits, mais aussi à réduire l'emploi et à baisser les salaires : la baisse de la demande qui s'ensuit provoque alors de nouvelles baisses de prix.
La déflation pose un grave problème de financement. Le taux d'intérêt des emprunts ne pouvant être que positif, leur coût réel (égal au taux d'intérêt courant diminué du taux d'inflation) augmente au fur et à mesure que les prix baissent : si le taux d'intérêt est égal à 5 % et si le taux d'inflation est de 2 %, le coût réel de l'emprunt est égal à 3 % ; mais, si les prix baissent de 1 %, le coût réel de l'emprunt sera alors égal à 6 %.
On parle parfois de « déflation réelle » pour évoquer la baisse du niveau d'activité d'un pays qui peut cependant être accompagnée d'une hausse des prix, comme cela se produit dans des pays du tiers-monde ou dans des pays de l'Est. Ces pays sont victimes d'une concurrence extérieure forte qui rend difficile le maintien en activité de secteurs peu compétitifs, mais, parallèlement, la dépréciation de leur monnaie provoque une forte inflation importée
P. B.
➙ Dépression, désinflation
Délocalisation
La délocalisation est l'opération par laquelle une entreprise transfère à l'étranger l'ensemble ou une partie de ses activités afin de diminuer les coûts de production des biens destinés aux marchés d'origine.
La délocalisation se réalise par l'installation d'une unité dans un autre pays, par la prise de contrôle de sociétés étrangères ou par des contrats de sous-traitance. La production délocalisée est destinée à être réexportée vers le marché national ou vers les marchés d'exportation habituels.
Si les délocalisations peuvent impliquer des investissements directs, tous les investissements directs ne sont pas associés à une délocalisation. L'implantation d'une filiale à l'étranger, destinée à satisfaire la demande locale, ne peut être considérée comme une délocalisation sauf si elle se substitue massivement aux exportations.
Les délocalisations ont suscité un certain nombre d'inquiétudes, notamment aux Etats-Unis, après la mise en place d'une zone de libre-échange avec le Mexique, et en France. Certains craignaient que les écarts de coûts salariaux à l'origine des délocalisations ne pèsent sur l'emploi et le niveau de vie des travailleurs les moins qualifiés. En proposant des coûts salariaux plus faibles, les délocalisations visées sont celles qui se réalisent du Nord vers le Sud. Les pays en développement attireraient la production des pays industriels dont la compétitivité est menacée . Les délocalisations concernent donc surtout les secteurs intensifs en main-d'œuvre peu qualifiée comme le textile.
Une menace sur les emplois qu'il ne faut pas surestimer
La délocalisation est une conséquence de la division internationale du travail. Elle est accélérée par la mobilité des capitaux financiers et par des techniques de production qui permettent d'accélérer le processus. Si les délocalisations pèsent directement sur l'emploi des secteurs concernés, elles conduisent à augmenter la production et la consommation du Sud, et donc indirectement les exportations du Nord. De plus, la baisse du coût attendu des produits importés libère un pouvoir d'achat qui profite à la production nationale. Même si, en théorie, l'effet négatif des délocalisations sur l'emploi peut être compensé par des créations d'emplois dans d'autres secteurs, certains travailleurs peu qualifiés sont perdants.
Néanmoins, l'ampleur du phénomène de délocalisation ne doit pas être exagérée. Des coûts salariaux plus bas dans les pays du Sud ont pour contrepartie une productivité plus faible, des infrastructures défaillantes, des difficultés de coordination industrielle, l'insuffisance de l'encadrement, l'incertitude sur la stabilité économique et politique du pays. La proximité entre les lieux de production et de consommation reste un avantage important pour les entreprises, qui peut conduire parfois à une relocalisation dans le pays d'origine
J.-M. S.
➙ Mondialisation
Demande
Quantité de biens ou de services que des agents économiques cherchent à acquérir pour satisfaire leurs besoins ou pour produire d'autres biens ou services.
Acquérir un bien représente un arbitrage entre ce qu'on y gagne et ce qu'on y perd. On gagne du plaisir, peu en importe la raison. On y perd de l'argent qu'il va falloir céder en échange, et donc la possibilité d'obtenir d'autres biens, d'autres plaisirs auxquels il va falloir renoncer. La bonne décision concernant l'achat de tel produit dépendent ainsi du prix du bien en question et des prix des autres biens, du revenu dont on dispose et de la difficulté que l'on a de le gagner. La décision d'acheter telle voiture dépend de son prix, du prix de ses concurrentes et des ressources disponibles.
La demande globale d'un produit concerne par exemple la quantité totale de voitures de tel type achetée par an. Elle s'explique par les deux prix évoqués plus haut, mais aussi par le revenu national, la répartition de la population selon l'âge ou la taille de la famille, etc.
La demande de travail désigne de même le nombre d'heures dont une entreprise souhaite disposer en fonction du taux de salaire horaire (le langage courant dit plutôt que l'entreprise « offre » des emplois). La demande de travail diminue toujours quand le salaire correspondant augmente ; certains en déduisent qu'il convient de diminuer les salaires pour inciter à embaucher et diminuer ainsi le chômage.
Les demandes s'expriment normalement en quan-tités : tel individu veut acheter 40 balles de tennis par an ; mais on peut exprimer cela aussi en monnaie, avec ici une demande de 70 euros pour les balles. En additionnant les demandes monétaires pour tous les biens, émises par tous les agents économiques, on obtient une demande globale en monnaie. Les économistes keynésiens pensent que la demande globale ainsi définie peut s'avérer insuffisante pour permettre le plein-emploi ; ils préconisent alors des politiques de stimulation de la demande pour améliorer la situation
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