Dans les pays développés, la structure du budget des ménages s'est profondément transformée avec le temps. L'enrichissement inégal de la population, son vieillissement et les produits nouveaux proposés à la consommation, moins chers et de meilleure qualité, ont fortement affecté le poids relatif de chacun des postes. Partout, l'alimentation, l'habillement et l'équipement du logement ont vu leur importance diminuer. Ces postes représentaient respectivement 26 %, 9,6 % et 10,2 % de la consommation des ménages en France en 1970 ; ils ne pèsent plus que 18,4 % (alcools et tabac inclus), 5,3 % et 6,5 % en 1998.
Priorité au logement et à la santé
Les dépenses consacrées au logement, à la santé, aux transports, à la communication, à la culture et aux loisirs ont connu en revanche une progression spectaculaire. Les sommes utilisées par les ménages pour leurs dépenses de « logement, chauffage et éclairage » constituaient 15,3 % de leur budget en 1970 ; elles sont passées à 24,5 % en 1998. Celles orientées vers les transports et les communications sont passées, pendant la même période, de 13,4 % à 16,6 %.
Même si, en Europe, la structure du budget des ménages a tendance à converger vers un modèle identique, des particularités subsistent : en Irlande et au Portugal, la part consacrée à l'alimentation reste élevée (respectivement 31 % et 28 %) ; dans les pays nordiques, le poids des dépenses destinées au « logement, chauffage et éclairage » est important (33 % en Suède et 27 % au Danemark). Les systèmes de santé étant différents selon les pays, le poids des dépenses de santé dans le budget des ménages varie de 2 % à 16 %
É. I.
➙ Consommation
Bulle financière
Augmentation excessive du cours des titres cotés sur les marchés boursiers, amenant nécessairement un brutal retournement (« éclatement de la bulle »).
Le cours des actions des entreprises cotées en Bourse dépend (en théorie) de leur santé économique, de leur perspective de développement et du montant des dividendes distribués. Mais il dépend aussi de l'offre et de la demande de chaque titre. Ainsi, si la confiance des épargnants dans la valeur future des titres est grande, et si les agents redoutent les immobilisations longues, l'attrait des actions et des obligations revendables à tout moment provoque un excès du nombre de titres demandés par rapport aux quantités offertes. La hausse des cours qui en résulte attire de nouveaux acheteurs qui contribuent à entretenir la hausse des cours.
Dégonflement ou crise
Le comportement de ces agents est purement spéculatif : ils n'achètent des titres que dans l'espoir de réaliser des gains financiers rapides en les revendant. De ce fait, la « bulle spéculative » doit tôt ou tard éclater : en effet, quand les détenteurs de titres décident de les revendre pour « réaliser leur béné-fice », ils contribuent à faire baisser le cours des titres et à provoquer des ventes accélérées (la baisse appelle la baisse). Si ces ventes sont compensées par des achats importants, la bulle spéculative se « dégonflera » progressivement et l'on assistera à une simple « correction » de la valeur excessive des titres par rapport à leur cours « normal » (le Price Earning Ratio). Mais si les acheteurs font défaut, la bulle peut éclater : le cours des titres s'effondre et les porteurs se trouvent brutalement ruinés.
Les sommets de Wall Street
Entre novembre 1994 et juillet 1998, la valeur des titres cotés à la Bourse de Wall Street est passée de 4 600 à 11 600 milliards de dollars. La capitalisation de l'ensemble des sociétés cotées représente ainsi 120 % du produit national brut américain. Selon Alan Greenspan, président de la banque centrale américaine (la FED), cette « exubérance irration-nelle » des marchés est l'expression même d'une bulle financière spéculative.
Cela peut avoir de grands effets sur l'économie réelle (comme en 1929). Mais le krach boursier de 1987 a montré que l'éclatement de la bulle ne débouchait pas nécessairement sur une crise économique générale
P. B.
➙ Bourse, krach, spéculation
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